tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4279 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4279 Southwest PHX 07:46 COS 10:35 8% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1280 Southwest PHX 13:41 COS 16:31 24% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → COS 17:35DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 53m Denver DEN 09:45 → COS 10:46UA 5306 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:28 → COS 12:37AA 6390 · flown by SkyWest 6h 27m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 3h 35m Denver DEN 15:35 → COS 16:32UA 5546 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:27 → COS 18:34AA 6267 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → COS 15:02AA 1170 6h 32m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:31 → DEN 16:27UA 1615 1h 28m Denver DEN 17:55 → COS 18:54UA 5861 · flown by SkyWest 4h 23m 90% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:15 → ORD 18:53UA 1842 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → COS 21:55UA 4638 · flown by SkyWest 7h 40m 60% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON