tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2990 American Flight history → PHX 08:57 CVG 15:49 16% 3% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 03m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703 8h 52m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 56m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248 7h 47m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119 9h 10m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 56m Houston IAH 12:48 → CVG 16:32UA 2850 7h 22m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:19 → ORD 16:05AA 332 3h 24m Chicago ORD 19:29 → CVG 22:00AA 3690 · flown by Envoy 8h 41m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978 5h 27m 94% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748 51m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CVG 20:06UA 1732 5h 54m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON