Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1718 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1718 PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4340 PHX 15:09 → DAL 19:33 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1718 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:21	DAL 09:44	2%	1%	0.7%	94%
WN 1469 Southwest	PHX 08:03	DAL 12:31	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3375 Southwest	PHX 09:03	DAL 13:30	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1591 Southwest	PHX 11:43	DAL 16:07	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3377 Southwest	PHX 10:48	DAL 15:12	15%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1336 Southwest	PHX 13:09	DAL 17:32	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4340 Southwest	PHX 15:09	DAL 19:33	22%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON