tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 05:21, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3191 American Flight history → PHX 08:30 DCA 15:59 16% 4% 0.6% 85%
AA 1787 American Flight history → PHX 13:03 DCA 20:44 24% 8% 0.7% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 2h 15m Chicago ORD 09:05 → DCA 12:17AA 523 8h 02m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 24m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 2h 47m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 39m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 49m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 9h 21m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962 9h 20m 99% 80%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44WN 1718 1h 02m Dallas DAL 10:46 → DCA 14:52WN 4418 6h 31m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:15 → ORD 18:53UA 1842 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 6h 39m 60% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON