Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3383 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3383 PHX 05:21 → DEN 08:16 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2142 PHX 16:48 → DEN 19:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3383 Southwest	PHX 05:21	DEN 08:16	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 337 United Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DEN 08:52	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 3384 Southwest	PHX 07:01	DEN 09:57	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1717 Southwest	PHX 09:11	DEN 12:08	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3389 Southwest	PHX 08:01	DEN 10:52	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 597 United Flight history →	PHX 09:08	DEN 12:00	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
F9 1376 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:40	DEN 09:39	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
WN 3385 Southwest	PHX 10:11	DEN 13:07	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1599 United	PHX 07:30	DEN 10:26	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2602 American Flight history →	PHX 08:31	DEN 11:32	15%	3%	0.6%	64%
F9 4768 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:40	DEN 11:38	16%	4%	0.7%	85%
WN 3386 Southwest	PHX 12:21	DEN 15:14	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 709 United Flight history →	PHX 13:37	DEN 16:50	17%	5%	0.5%	87%
WN 3387 Southwest	PHX 13:26	DEN 16:19	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1615 United Flight history →	PHX 13:31	DEN 16:27	20%	6%	0.5%	75%
UA 280 United	PHX 15:30	DEN 18:30	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 624 United Flight history →	PHX 16:25	DEN 19:21	22%	7%	0.5%	76%
OO 4944 SkyWest	PHX 15:20	DEN 18:17	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3388 Southwest	PHX 15:16	DEN 18:10	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 188 Southwest	PHX 16:29	DEN 19:27	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2142 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:48	DEN 19:46	33%	7%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON