Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1655 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1655 PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 853 PHX 16:20 → DFW 20:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1655 American Flight history →	PHX 05:10	DFW 09:45	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 1018 American Flight history →	PHX 06:10	DFW 10:42	6%	3%	0.8%	90%
F9 2532 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:24	DFW 10:59	9%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 1139 American Flight history →	PHX 07:30	DFW 12:06	11%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 2719 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DFW 13:05	14%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 3284 American Flight history →	PHX 10:31	DFW 15:10	15%	5%	0.8%	88%
AA 2905 American	PHX 12:10	DFW 16:38	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 454 American	PHX 14:20	DFW 18:53	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2210 American Flight history →	PHX 17:09	DFW 21:38	20%	9%	0.9%	65%
F9 3284 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 15:19	DFW 19:47	22%	11%	0.9%	73%
AA 2902 American	PHX 13:09	DFW 17:40	23%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1663 American Flight history →	PHX 16:15	DFW 20:53	24%	11%	0.8%	65%
AA 853 American	PHX 16:20	DFW 20:49	25%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON