Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 947 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 947 PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2121 PHX 16:00 → DTW 23:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 947 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DTW 12:48	5%	1%	0.5%	91%
DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:55	DTW 17:43	15%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 1728 American Flight history →	PHX 08:57	DTW 15:55	18%	3%	0.6%	86%
F9 4392 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:32	DTW 14:28	18%	5%	0.7%	67%
DL 785 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:28	DTW 22:20	21%	5%	0.5%	79%
AA 2121 American Flight history →	PHX 16:00	DTW 23:05	27%	6%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON