Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2239 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2239 PHX 07:46 → ELP 10:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2875 PHX 16:11 → ELP 18:39 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2239 Southwest	PHX 07:46	ELP 10:10	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 4907 SkyWest	PHX 09:04	ELP 11:31	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 294 Southwest	PHX 11:41	ELP 14:05	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4971 SkyWest	PHX 12:40	ELP 15:05	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 898 Southwest	PHX 16:18	ELP 18:42	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2875 American	PHX 16:11	ELP 18:39	28%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON