Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 4097 at 10:25, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4097 Envoy	PHX 10:25	EUG 13:06	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	2h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	100%	92%
Alaska Details →	PHX 16:12 → SEA 19:14AS 401	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	7h 47m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	PHX 06:01 → SJC 08:06WN 4286	2h 45m San Jose	SJC 10:51 → EUG 12:33WN 3686	6h 32m	100%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 23m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	6h 57m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	91%	77%
Alaska Details →	PHX 09:22 → SEA 12:21AS 603	3h 29m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	7h 38m	97%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON