Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1222 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1222 PHX 06:45 → EWR 14:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2796 PHX 11:52 → EWR 19:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1222 United Flight history →	PHX 06:45	EWR 14:42	9%	3%	0.8%	100%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	PHX 00:03	EWR 07:51	11%	3%	1.1%	86%
AA 1327 American	PHX 08:30	EWR 16:14	27%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1967 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	EWR 23:59	27%	10%	0.9%	71%
UA 2188 United	PHX 10:06	EWR 17:53	29%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2291 United	PHX 13:42	EWR 21:39	32%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 2796 United	PHX 11:52	EWR 19:54	33%	12%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	6h 54m	97%	73%
United Details →	PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 18:02 → EWR 21:13UA 2790	7h 01m	86%	52%
United Details →	PHX 09:14 → ORD 14:52UA 1124	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → EWR 19:10UA 249	6h 56m	90%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON