tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 550 American Flight history → PHX 08:30 FLL 16:05 18% 5% 0.7% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 28m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 19m Houston IAH 12:11 → FLL 16:01UA 1982 6h 51m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 54m Denver DEN 09:46 → FLL 15:46UA 1214 6h 46m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 6h 56m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 2h 55m Seattle SEA 13:00 → FLL 21:52DL 338 11h 53m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489 8h 42m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 53m Denver DEN 13:53 → FLL 19:55UA 1384 7h 47m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546 1h 31m New York JFK 15:30 → FLL 18:54DL 1419 9h 54m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748 51m Chicago ORD 17:45 → FLL 21:51UA 463 7h 39m 68% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON