Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 4966 at 08:57, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 4966 SkyWest	PHX 08:57	FSD 13:43	18%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:16 → FSD 19:56DL 2615	7h 42m	94%	84%
American Details →	PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:06 → FSD 17:16AA 3820 · flown by Envoy	7h 46m	99%	84%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 40m Denver	DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	96%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:55 → FSD 12:35UA 4759 · flown by SkyWest	4h 35m	96%	81%
United Details →	PHX 13:31 → DEN 16:27UA 1615	1h 01m Denver	DEN 17:28 → FSD 20:08UA 645	4h 37m	81%	66%
United Details →	PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → FSD 17:53UA 4404 · flown by GoJet	9h 03m	100%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON