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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 540 at 10:22, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 540 American Flight history → PHX 10:22 GEG 13:21 16% 6% 0.6% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:01 → SJC 08:06WN 4286 3h 40m San Jose SJC 11:46 → GEG 13:57WN 3534 7h 56m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 23m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374 3h 10m Seattle SEA 15:40 → GEG 16:55DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 7h 36m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295 6h 37m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419 2h 34m Seattle SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645 3h 53m Seattle SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon 8h 05m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 17:32 → GEG 18:21DL 1219 5h 01m 95% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON