Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: AA 693 at 10:31, 30%.

Safest bet that day AA 693 PHX 10:31 → HNL 14:16 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AS 835 PHX 08:10 → HNL 11:53 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 693 American Flight history →	PHX 10:31	HNL 14:16	30%	8%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
WN 256 Southwest	PHX 09:36	HNL 13:22	32%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 835 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 08:10	HNL 11:53	37%	6%	0.8%	80%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	9h 06m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 18m	95%	72%
American Details →	PHX 14:04 → LAX 15:37AA 1362	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 17:24 → HNL 20:25AA 297	9h 21m	95%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON