tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1873 United Flight history → PHX 08:50 IAD 16:17 13% 3% 0.6% 92%
UA 1017 United Flight history → PHX 14:05 IAD 21:27 15% 5% 0.6% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 19m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 3h 34m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 58m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748 3h 20m Chicago ORD 20:14 → IAD 23:15UA 304 9h 03m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 2h 20m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 7h 41m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 8h 01m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 3h 40m Denver DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421 9h 03m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 55m Houston IAH 14:47 → IAD 18:58UA 1178 9h 48m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:14 → ORD 14:52UA 1124 2h 08m Chicago ORD 17:00 → IAD 20:06UA 3751 7h 52m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON