Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1318 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1318 PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1704 PHX 12:00 → IAH 16:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1318 United Flight history →	PHX 06:10	IAH 10:52	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 1397 United	PHX 08:32	IAH 13:13	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1481 United	PHX 10:25	IAH 15:06	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1373 United Flight history →	PHX 12:20	IAH 17:03	15%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 2198 United Flight history →	PHX 16:12	IAH 20:55	17%	6%	0.6%	79%
AA 2357 American Flight history →	PHX 08:53	IAH 13:50	17%	5%	0.7%	67%
MQ 4153 Envoy	PHX 12:33	IAH 17:19	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1704 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 12:00	IAH 16:45	18%	8%	0.7%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON