Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 6226 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:30	ICT 13:07	14%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 965 Southwest	PHX 11:01	ICT 15:18	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 13:22 → ICT 15:15DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	98%	88%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 59m Denver	DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	98%	88%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest	4h 27m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128	8h 32m	97%	86%
American Details →	PHX 09:17 → DFW 13:51AA 2719	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:07 → ICT 18:30AA 3691 · flown by Envoy	7h 13m	98%	83%
United Details →	PHX 11:58 → DEN 15:10UA 1615	2h 46m Denver	DEN 17:56 → ICT 20:38UA 1788	6h 40m	96%	80%
American Details →	PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:20 → ICT 15:51AA 2304	7h 41m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON