Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4109 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4109 PHX 07:46 → IND 14:07 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1255 PHX 15:30 → IND 22:01 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4109 Southwest	PHX 07:46	IND 14:07	10%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 2954 American Flight history →	PHX 08:47	IND 15:43	14%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 3659 Southwest	PHX 10:56	IND 17:18	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 452 Southwest	PHX 14:56	IND 21:19	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 1255 American Flight history →	PHX 15:30	IND 22:01	25%	8%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON