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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392 7h 09m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 2h 14m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 8h 27m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990 6h 24m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39UA 1451 6h 39m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → JAX 21:13DL 2265 7h 59m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 18m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 6h 27m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189 8h 58m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 36m Dulles IAD 17:53 → JAX 20:08UA 293 8h 18m 96% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON