Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 546 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 546 PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 136 PHX 13:28 → JFK 21:12 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 546 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	JFK 13:59	5%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 636 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	JFK 14:59	11%	3%	0.9%	89%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:40	JFK 20:01	18%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 2339 American Flight history →	PHX 10:05	JFK 18:15	20%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 832 American Flight history →	PHX 15:51	JFK 23:58	22%	7%	0.8%	76%
AA 475 American	PHX 12:55	JFK 20:43	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 136 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 13:28	JFK 21:12	31%	13%	1.0%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148	55m Chicago	ORD 07:45 → JFK 11:02AA 4590 · flown by Republic	6h 47m	86%	75%
American Details →	PHX 05:09 → ORD 10:47AA 3062	49m Chicago	ORD 11:36 → JFK 14:48AA 3225	6h 39m	88%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON