Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:10, 48% on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 663 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	KOA 14:06	16%	4%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 23m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	12h 37m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311	10h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	11h 16m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	PHX 09:22 → SEA 12:20AS 603	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238	12h 43m	97%	76%
American Details →	PHX 08:29 → LAX 10:03AA 1892	3h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10AA 59	10h 41m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:59 → SEA 08:58AS 605	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:02AS 518	10h 03m	90%	71%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:10 → HNL 11:53AS 835	1h 35m Honolulu	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1138	9h 16m	90%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON