Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2449 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2449 PHX 05:51 → LAS 07:08 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1662 PHX 16:16 → LAS 17:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2449 Southwest	PHX 05:51	LAS 07:08	2%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2108 Southwest	PHX 07:31	LAS 08:47	6%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 186 Southwest	PHX 09:02	LAS 10:19	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 1956 American	PHX 07:23	LAS 08:47	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2652 Southwest	PHX 10:27	LAS 11:43	14%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 457 American	PHX 11:14	LAS 12:47	14%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2109 American Flight history →	PHX 10:05	LAS 11:27	15%	5%	0.7%	82%
F9 1019 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:45	LAS 08:51	16%	5%	1.0%	84%
WN 1932 Southwest	PHX 11:37	LAS 12:53	18%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1505 American	PHX 17:08	LAS 18:30	19%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4454 Southwest	PHX 17:11	LAS 18:27	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2631 American	PHX 13:56	LAS 15:17	21%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4453 Southwest	PHX 13:46	LAS 15:02	25%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 3406 Southwest	PHX 15:01	LAS 16:18	26%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 1662 Southwest	PHX 16:16	LAS 17:32	28%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON