Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2764 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2764 PHX 05:31 → LAX 06:59 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2070 PHX 16:06 → LAX 17:34 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2764 Southwest	PHX 05:31	LAX 06:59	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4057 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:32	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	LAX 13:46	9%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:37	LAX 12:08	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
OO 5939 SkyWest	PHX 06:33	LAX 08:06	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2027 American	PHX 10:57	LAX 12:35	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:02	LAX 17:34	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 2504 Southwest	PHX 07:51	LAX 09:19	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	PHX 07:13	LAX 08:46	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5968 SkyWest	PHX 16:02	LAX 17:35	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6032 SkyWest	PHX 10:30	LAX 12:03	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2664 Southwest	PHX 11:06	LAX 12:34	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1892 American Flight history →	PHX 08:00	LAX 09:34	14%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 1362 American Flight history →	PHX 14:04	LAX 15:37	14%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 2318 United	PHX 08:00	LAX 09:33	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1331 American Flight history →	PHX 15:40	LAX 17:13	17%	7%	0.6%	65%
F9 2133 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:11	LAX 17:49	19%	9%	0.9%	75%
WN 2070 Southwest	PHX 16:06	LAX 17:34	24%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON