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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 05:21, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Midland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44WN 1718 2h 34m Dallas DAL 12:18 → MAF 13:42WN 1394 6h 21m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 43m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 7h 23m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:29 → MAF 19:49AA 4279 · flown by Envoy 7h 18m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:12 → IAH 20:55UA 2198 1h 09m Houston IAH 22:04 → MAF 23:44UA 6276 · flown by Mesa 5h 32m 87% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON