Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3417 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3417 PHX 05:06 → MCI 09:41 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3421 PHX 13:56 → MCI 18:33 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3417 Southwest	PHX 05:06	MCI 09:41	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3418 Southwest	PHX 09:32	MCI 14:09	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1622 American Flight history →	PHX 08:44	MCI 13:49	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 623 American Flight history →	PHX 16:09	MCI 21:11	22%	8%	0.6%	69%
WN 3421 Southwest	PHX 13:56	MCI 18:33	22%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON