tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1431 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1431 Southwest PHX 08:01 MCO 15:09 14% 3% 0.9% no record
AA 603 American PHX 15:31 MCO 22:56 26% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309 9h 10m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 33m Houston IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662 6h 54m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 18m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 7h 04m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m Los Angeles LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718 10h 30m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 48m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 31m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 58m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032 7h 13m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 7h 19m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 00:03 → EWR 08:01UA 2078 3h 09m Newark EWR 11:10 → MCO 14:03UA 2396 11h 00m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON