Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3425 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3425 PHX 06:37 → MDW 12:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2206 PHX 16:36 → MDW 22:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3425 Southwest	PHX 06:37	MDW 12:01	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3429 Southwest	PHX 00:36	MDW 05:56	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1343 Southwest	PHX 08:12	MDW 13:43	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4245 Southwest	PHX 10:02	MDW 15:34	15%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1181 Southwest	PHX 12:22	MDW 17:54	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3427 Southwest	PHX 15:51	MDW 21:20	26%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2206 Southwest	PHX 16:36	MDW 22:05	27%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON