Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3047 at 12:36, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3047 Southwest	PHX 12:36	MEM 17:39	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	9h 07m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	6h 30m	98%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 00m Denver	DEN 10:52 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	6h 18m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	7h 25m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	8h 20m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44WN 1718	2h 42m Dallas	DAL 12:26 → MEM 14:03WN 1417	6h 42m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	7h 52m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515	5h 55m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON