Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 6240 at 10:15, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6240 SkyWest	PHX 10:15	MFR 12:55	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:04 → PDX 13:52AS 511	3h 53m Portland	PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon	7h 44m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	PHX 16:12 → SEA 19:14AS 401	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	7h 52m	99%	84%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:27 → SEA 14:26AS 637	3h 21m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	7h 46m	98%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 28m Denver	DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337	7h 05m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	5h 57m	91%	74%
United Details →	PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619	3h 07m San Francisco	SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51UA 5706 · flown by SkyWest	6h 39m	99%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON