Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1968 American Flight history →	PHX 09:16	MIA 16:47	18%	5%	0.8%	88%
AA 404 American	PHX 12:14	MIA 19:44	26%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 47m	99%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	1h 08m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	6h 37m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	6h 46m	97%	75%
American Details →	PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → MIA 14:10AA 2689	9h 55m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	7h 24m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546	1h 11m New York	JFK 15:10 → MIA 18:53DL 2500	9h 53m	97%	74%
American Details →	PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	7h 36m	96%	73%
American Details →	PHX 10:19 → ORD 16:05AA 332	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 19:11 → MIA 23:35AA 1159	10h 16m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON