Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 3527 Envoy	PHX 10:11	MRY 12:06	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
OO 4974 SkyWest	PHX 13:37	MRY 15:43	17%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 23m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	PHX 09:22 → SEA 12:21AS 603	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 15:20 → MRY 17:42AS 2129 · flown by Horizon	8h 20m	96%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:27 → SEA 14:26AS 637	54m Seattle	SEA 15:20 → MRY 17:42AS 2129 · flown by Horizon	6h 15m	71%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON