Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1670 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1670 American Flight history →	PHX 08:26	MSN 13:53	15%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 1835 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	MSN 21:44	26%	10%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	8h 06m	99%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 08m Denver	DEN 11:00 → MSN 14:10UA 2368	6h 10m	99%	84%
American Details →	PHX 05:09 → ORD 10:47AA 3062	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → MSN 15:14AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	97%	79%
United Details →	PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → MSN 15:03UA 1595	6h 13m	96%	76%
American Details →	PHX 08:30 → CLT 15:48AA 1688	3h 46m Charlotte	CLT 19:34 → MSN 20:49AA 1426	10h 19m	99%	76%
American Details →	PHX 10:19 → ORD 16:05AA 332	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 17:25 → MSN 18:43AA 3953 · flown by Envoy	6h 24m	91%	74%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070	2h 54m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → MSN 21:02DL 5444 · flown by Endeavor	8h 07m	97%	71%
United Details →	PHX 13:37 → DEN 16:50UA 709	1h 10m Denver	DEN 18:00 → MSN 21:16UA 1894	5h 39m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON