Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2553 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2553 PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2820 PHX 16:45 → MSP 22:01 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2553 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:45	MSP 11:50	4%	2%	0.5%	95%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:48	MSP 16:55	8%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:42	MSP 14:45	8%	3%	0.4%	88%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:17	MSP 22:29	10%	4%	0.4%	84%
AA 408 American Flight history →	PHX 08:51	MSP 14:08	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:51	MSP 19:00	13%	3%	0.4%	81%
AA 2820 American Flight history →	PHX 16:45	MSP 22:01	21%	8%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON