Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 158 at 10:56, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 158 Southwest	PHX 10:56	MSY 16:00	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44WN 1718	1h 17m Dallas	DAL 11:01 → MSY 12:39WN 4831	5h 18m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 32m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100	5h 47m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	55m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	6h 40m	95%	85%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	58m Denver	DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273	5h 39m	95%	85%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 56m Houston	IAH 14:48 → MSY 16:13UA 2738	8h 03m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	6h 42m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	8h 14m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON