tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 645 American Flight history → PHX 11:03 OGG 14:32 17% 5% 0.6% 87%
WN 3166 Southwest PHX 09:34 OGG 12:49 25% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374 2h 29m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 11h 37m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 05m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 3h 08m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 05m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 08m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest 58m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 8h 07m 95% 76%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 08:14 → SEA 11:08AS 645 2h 45m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 11h 45m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:20 → OGG 14:10AA 123 12h 00m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 11:04 → PDX 13:51AS 511 53m Portland PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:25AS 353 9h 21m 81% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 07:00 → SFO 09:12UA 2449 53m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 8h 34m 70% 52%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619 50m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 8h 24m 67% 52%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 08:10 → HNL 11:53AS 835 1h 08m Honolulu HNL 13:01 → OGG 13:45AS 1116 8h 35m 71% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON