Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3245 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3245 PHX 07:46 → OMA 12:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4893 PHX 13:02 → OMA 17:53 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3245 Southwest	PHX 07:46	OMA 12:25	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 3039 American	PHX 08:46	OMA 13:54	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 456 Southwest	PHX 11:52	OMA 16:32	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4893 SkyWest	PHX 13:02	OMA 17:53	17%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON