Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1919 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1919 PHX 07:52 → ONT 09:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1666 PHX 16:56 → ONT 18:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1919 Southwest	PHX 07:52	ONT 09:17	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1274 Southwest	PHX 10:11	ONT 11:36	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	PHX 10:56	ONT 12:29	13%	5%	0.6%	83%
WN 235 Southwest	PHX 14:31	ONT 15:56	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1666 American Flight history →	PHX 16:56	ONT 18:26	20%	9%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON