Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3062 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3062 PHX 05:09 → ORD 10:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 435 PHX 15:29 → ORD 21:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3062 American Flight history →	PHX 05:09	ORD 10:47	7%	3%	1.2%	92%
UA 356 United Flight history →	PHX 06:50	ORD 12:28	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2823 United	PHX 00:00	ORD 05:27	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2765 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	ORD 12:51	10%	3%	1.3%	91%
AA 1148 American Flight history →	PHX 01:15	ORD 06:50	12%	4%	1.2%	79%
AA 2474 American	PHX 08:33	ORD 14:16	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 1124 United Flight history →	PHX 09:14	ORD 14:52	17%	8%	0.6%	61%
UA 1748 United Flight history →	PHX 11:12	ORD 16:54	19%	8%	0.6%	78%
AA 332 American Flight history →	PHX 10:19	ORD 16:05	20%	7%	1.1%	74%
UA 2652 United	PHX 11:24	ORD 17:11	20%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1402 United	PHX 16:43	ORD 22:33	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 338 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	ORD 18:08	23%	11%	1.1%	70%
UA 1842 United Flight history →	PHX 13:15	ORD 18:53	24%	9%	0.6%	83%
AA 435 American Flight history →	PHX 15:29	ORD 21:19	26%	11%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON