Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1315 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1315 PHX 07:06 → PDX 09:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1625 PHX 14:19 → PDX 17:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1315 Southwest	PHX 07:06	PDX 09:59	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 564 Alaska	PHX 07:04	PDX 09:52	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 511 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 11:04	PDX 13:52	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 742 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:04	PDX 16:46	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
AS 369 Alaska	PHX 08:01	PDX 10:48	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3468 Southwest	PHX 12:07	PDX 15:01	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2684 American	PHX 10:47	PDX 13:46	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1625 American Flight history →	PHX 14:19	PDX 17:17	17%	5%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON