Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3047 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3047 PHX 06:39 → PHL 14:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2721 PHX 13:14 → PHL 21:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3047 American	PHX 06:39	PHL 14:35	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2300 American Flight history →	PHX 08:54	PHL 16:42	18%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 357 American	PHX 15:46	PHL 23:45	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2721 American Flight history →	PHX 13:14	PHL 21:14	24%	6%	0.7%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	PHX 08:47 → IND 15:43AA 2954	1h 06m Indianapolis	IND 16:49 → PHL 18:49AA 5592 · flown by PSA	7h 02m	89%	73%
American Details →	PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009	53m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 50m	89%	73%
American Details →	PHX 05:09 → ORD 10:47AA 3062	53m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	6h 45m	90%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON