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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:51, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2871 American Flight history → PHX 15:14 PIT 22:19 23% 8% 0.6% 78%
WN 793 Southwest PHX 16:56 PIT 00:04 24% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:18 → ORD 05:55AA 1148 2h 25m Chicago ORD 08:20 → PIT 11:07AA 4478 · flown by Republic 7h 49m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 48m Minneapolis MSP 13:38 → PIT 16:42DL 4971 · flown by Endeavor 6h 57m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 1h 48m Detroit DTW 14:36 → PIT 15:48DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor 6h 48m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:19 → ATL 13:02DL 918 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → PIT 16:44DL 1568 7h 25m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → PIT 22:51DL 1134 8h 03m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 6h 16m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 1h 57m Chicago ORD 14:25 → PIT 17:10UA 1349 7h 20m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 47m Chicago ORD 18:55 → PIT 21:35AA 1051 6h 20m 74% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON