Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 6244 at 11:57, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6244 SkyWest	PHX 11:57	PSC 14:44	14%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:47 → PSC 11:38DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	3h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	100%	91%
Alaska Details →	PHX 16:12 → SEA 19:14AS 401	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon	7h 31m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → PSC 19:45DL 762	7h 57m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:27 → SEA 14:26AS 637	2h 02m Seattle	SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon	6h 00m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	7h 55m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:59 → SEA 08:59AS 605	2h 21m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	6h 20m	98%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645	51m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	4h 59m	63%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON