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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 3832 at 08:29, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3832 Envoy PHX 08:29 RAP 11:53 12% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:14 → RAP 16:42AA 3532 · flown by Envoy 8h 12m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → RAP 15:29DL 3851 · flown by SkyWest 7h 44m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 2h 30m Denver DEN 14:30 → RAP 15:54UA 5891 · flown by SkyWest 5h 46m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 18m Denver DEN 11:10 → RAP 12:31UA 1585 5h 31m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:31 → DEN 16:27UA 1615 1h 28m Denver DEN 17:55 → RAP 19:24UA 5225 · flown by SkyWest 4h 53m 90% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON