Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3929 at 11:04, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 11:04	RDM 13:46	10%	2%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → RDM 11:35DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	99%	93%
Alaska Details →	PHX 16:12 → SEA 19:14AS 401	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon	7h 47m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43DL 4141 · flown by SkyWest	6h 28m	99%	83%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 23m Denver	DEN 11:15 → RDM 12:53UA 2082	6h 53m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	PHX 14:04 → PDX 16:46AS 742	1h 34m Portland	PDX 18:20 → RDM 19:09AS 2172 · flown by Horizon	5h 05m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 11:22 → RDM 12:45DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	5h 46m	91%	75%
United Details →	PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619	3h 14m San Francisco	SFO 16:29 → RDM 18:10UA 2418	6h 58m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:59 → SEA 08:59AS 605	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 11:27 → RDM 12:30AS 275	6h 31m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON