tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3032 Southwest PHX 10:01 RDU 17:13 21% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 2332 American Flight history → PHX 15:41 RDU 22:58 24% 8% 0.7% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 35m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 8h 06m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 3h 14m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 8h 47m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 11m Houston IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55UA 2196 6h 45m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 57m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 6h 16m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 1h 28m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 7h 23m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 7h 43m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600 7h 07m 95% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON