Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2934 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2934 PHX 07:46 → RNO 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2869 PHX 16:56 → RNO 19:04 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2934 Southwest	PHX 07:46	RNO 09:45	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3338 Envoy	PHX 07:17	RNO 09:15	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	PHX 10:22	RNO 12:27	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 2016 American Flight history →	PHX 13:52	RNO 16:00	16%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 3475 Southwest	PHX 13:51	RNO 15:50	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2869 American	PHX 16:56	RNO 19:04	22%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON