Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4486 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4486 PHX 07:06 → SAN 08:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2395 PHX 16:46 → SAN 18:09 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4486 Southwest	PHX 07:06	SAN 08:30	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3742 Southwest	PHX 08:51	SAN 10:15	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1793 American	PHX 07:41	SAN 09:10	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3033 SkyWest	PHX 12:12	SAN 13:40	19%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 2122 American Flight history →	PHX 10:49	SAN 12:25	19%	7%	0.7%	81%
WN 1434 Southwest	PHX 09:51	SAN 11:14	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	PHX 14:19	SAN 15:45	21%	8%	0.7%	68%
AS 1708 Alaska	PHX 07:09	SAN 08:28	21%	3%	1.4%	no record
WN 652 Southwest	PHX 11:50	SAN 13:14	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 480 American Flight history →	PHX 17:03	SAN 18:32	22%	7%	0.7%	73%
WN 4912 Southwest	PHX 14:56	SAN 16:19	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 3034 SkyWest	PHX 15:17	SAN 16:45	23%	9%	2.1%	no record
F9 1571 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:15	SAN 09:47	24%	11%	0.7%	78%
WN 385 Southwest	PHX 13:31	SAN 14:55	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2395 Southwest	PHX 16:46	SAN 18:09	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 2045 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 07:11	SAN 08:36	19%	5%	15.7%	81%
AS 2028 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 15:13	SAN 16:35	50%	15%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON