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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4282 at 16:51, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4282 Southwest PHX 16:51 SDF 23:21 28% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 57m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44WN 1718 2h 12m Dallas DAL 11:56 → SDF 15:10WN 1460 6h 49m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842 8h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 12:51 → SDF 15:49DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 6h 04m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 53m Denver DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479 5h 28m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191 3h 46m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 10h 10m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:02 → SDF 17:16AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 8h 06m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 02m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 17m 95% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON