Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1570 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1570 PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2970 PHX 13:31 → SEA 16:31 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1570 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:59	SEA 10:05	9%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2374 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:19	SEA 12:30	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
AS 605 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 05:59	SEA 08:59	10%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:40	SEA 20:46	11%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	PHX 12:15	SEA 15:25	11%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:54	SEA 19:02	12%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 17:55	SEA 21:05	12%	5%	0.6%	84%
AA 2208 American	PHX 10:31	SEA 13:53	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 14:19	SEA 17:28	15%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 4081 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:42	SEA 10:50	17%	4%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
AS 603 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 09:22	SEA 12:21	19%	4%	0.6%	89%
AS 611 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:28	SEA 17:27	21%	5%	0.6%	81%
AS 645 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 07:20	SEA 10:29	21%	4%	0.6%	85%
AS 637 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 11:27	SEA 14:26	21%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 800 Southwest	PHX 07:51	SEA 10:51	22%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 401 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 16:12	SEA 19:14	25%	6%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
WN 2970 Southwest	PHX 13:31	SEA 16:31	28%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON