Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 22–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2449 PHX 07:00 → SFO 09:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time Riskiest WN 576 PHX 13:21 → SFO 15:32 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2449 United Flight history →	PHX 07:00	SFO 09:12	22%	6%	0.6%	25%
F9 1191 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 14:02	SFO 16:11	24%	15%	0.8%	64%
OO 5985 SkyWest	PHX 15:34	SFO 17:47	24%	13%	0.5%	no record
WN 3471 Southwest	PHX 07:51	SFO 10:02	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2619 United Flight history →	PHX 11:12	SFO 13:15	25%	10%	0.6%	66%
AA 6430 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 07:36	SFO 09:50	26%	8%	0.5%	94%worse than usual
AA 2421 American Flight history →	PHX 16:59	SFO 19:12	26%	12%	0.6%	69%
UA 2100 United	PHX 08:50	SFO 11:04	29%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2860 American Flight history →	PHX 14:05	SFO 16:05	30%	11%	0.6%	48%
AA 3199 American Flight history →	PHX 10:53	SFO 12:58	30%	9%	0.6%	31%
WN 576 Southwest	PHX 13:21	SFO 15:32	31%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON